## Poll

17 votes (60.71%) | |||

3 votes (10.71%) | |||

8 votes (28.57%) |

**28 members have voted**

Quote:mustangsally

the expected time between returns is infinite!

Thats nonsense talk. One side will get ahead so

far that the other side can never get caught up

even into infinity.

No it is not. Just simple math that most will not understand :)Quote:EvenBobThats nonsense talk. One side will get ahead so

far that the other side can never get caught up

even into infinity.

Again, you are only correct when p does not equal q

when p=q, the walk always returns to zero, always, an infinite number of times.

added: any stats/prob book with random walk will show this

here is one:

Random Walk

Quote:EvenBobThats nonsense talk. One side will get ahead so

far that the other side can never get caught up

even into infinity.

This incorrect, especially with reference to infinity.

If A can get ahead by 100, over time X, why can B not score 100 more than A over time X or 2X or 3X?

Obviously it can, else A could not have got ahead by 100.

Quote:EvenBobIt seems to me that because all bets in roulette

equal the even bets, the it would favor the house

for this reason. If you carry R/B, for instance, into

infinity, not only are they never equal, they become

farther apart as time goes on.

You'll find after 10m spins, R/B are thousands of

spins apart. After 20m spins, they are even farther

apart. And so on. And this would favor the player

with the largest BR, which is always the casino.

Actually, the sum total of all players bankrolls is probably bigger than the casino's bank roll, in real life.

Quote:thecesspitActually, the sum total of all players bankrolls is probably bigger than the casino's bank roll, in real life.

How so? The casino has a bottomless bank, the player does not.

In the past, yes.Quote:jjjooogggHas anyone here successfully made money counting over the long term?

I have already lost money. And I'm scared to try again. Can some of yall give your story.

I now agree with PGDan, that making money from BJ card counting is dead.

Who wants to travel the world, get kicked out of casinos because you card count, it is very easy to spot a counter these days.

Do not fool yourself, no fun in it left.

The few that make money, they are just the few.

The great majority, you and I included, can do better playing poker... and have more fun.

Just look at all the great counters from the near past, they now work for wall street or write BJ books and/or sell blackjack software.

That tells me just what I need to know.

Hey South Park is on for 2 hours

Pool party!

Quote:mustangsally

Now, back to the topic of this thread.

I say, no, today, card counting does not work.

If a player thinks it does, they have just not played enough hands and are just on the positive side of variance.

If it was true, over 100 million players would be killing the casinos with their BJ play.

That is not happening.

I am in my ninth year of making a living from blackjack play. I played just under 88,000 hands in 2009. 85,755 hands in 2010. 66,975 hands in 2011 (missed nearly 3 months due to illness) and just over 32,000 so far this year, as I have expanded into a second game which has cut down my blackjack play. That's over a quarter million hands in the last 3 and a half years. Prior to 2009, I did not track my play by hands played as I do now, but rather attempted to keep track in increments of time, which I found less accurate, so I switched to tracking hands. From 2004 until 2008 I was based on the east coast prior to relocating to vegas, and was playing lower limit and had more travel time involved, so the number of hands played (which I didn't keep track of then) was probably closer to 40,000 a year. But still that is closing in on half a million hands in my 8 and a half years. At what point can I expect variance to catch up to me?? lol

100 million people aren't killing the casino's by card counting because they don't have the bankroll to do so, not because it doesn't work. Because of the worse games and higher initial house advantage to overcome, there are huge swings involved in serious play today. A very large bankroll is needed to withstand these swings and probably even more important is the mental ability to withstand such enormous negative swings. That is what keeps the number of players who actually do this seriously down.

Last year I hit my high point on June 30. Over the last 6 months of the year I went backwards to the tune of five figures. It actually was much worse than that as I went backwards 33k over a 5 week period before rebounding to finish the second half of the year down (only) 10 grand. While the year in total, was a success for me, making mid/upper 5 figures, it is that type of 6 month downswing that keeps the masses from doing it. Few players have the bankroll or the stomach to play nearly everyday for six months and come away down thousands of dollars. The first such negative variance downswing and they have had enough. In addition to the large bankroll necessary, you have to have money to pay your bills during such a period. I am talking, you better have a hundred grand BR and living expenses.... and be prepared to lose a good chunk of it during a down cycle before things turn around. That is what keeps 100 million people from killing the casinos.

If you need more proof that card counting still work, you need look no further than this one fact. Casinos commonly backoff and barr players suspected of card counting. And in juristictions where they are not permitted to bann player from playing, the use bet restricting and preferential shuffling. If card counting no longer works, why are casinos throwing out and restricting losing customers?

I agree over 99.999% of all BJ counters are underfunded.Quote:kewlj

If you need more proof that card counting still work, you need look no further than this one fact. Casinos commonly backoff and barr players suspected of card counting. And in juristictions where they are not permitted to bann player from playing, the use bet restricting and preferential shuffling. If card counting no longer works, why are casinos throwing out losing customers?

I was.

And many still are.

I say there are way better ways to make a living.

Poker and sports betting to name a few.

You are just one of the lucky ones.

(WE also know all gamblers tell the whole truth 100% of the time)

If I was a casino, I take NO risk in my business model.

Card counters can play if they flat bet.

Public perception is card counting is cheating the casino and all the other players that do NOT count.

Even the cops think counters are breaking the law.

Where is the fun in that atmosphere?

Good Luck in your heaven

I think the numbers are you will only be at your bankroll highs less that 5% of the time.Quote:kewljLast year I hit my high point on June 30. Over the last 6 months of the year I went backwards to the tune of five figures. It actually was much worse than that as I went backwards 33k over a 5 week period before rebounding to finish the second half of the year down (only) 10 grand.

I would have to open up BJ Attack for the actual numbers.

The vast majority of counters have no clue on the math of BJ

and the bankroll and bet sizes needed to be successful, even though there is lots of info available to learn to do it correctly.

Quote:EvenBobHow so? The casino has a bottomless bank, the player does not.

The casino does not have a bottomless bank, no more than the SUM TOTAL OF -ALL PLAYERS- have a bottomless bank. All players. Not just one or two.

Again, how can the sum of 0 EV results result in a positive EV situation for either side? It cannot.